With President Obama’s fourth State of
the Union address – the first of his second term – rapidly approaching, there
is a lot of speculation as to what he will discuss.
This year I predict the big topics President
Obama will spend a considerable amount of time addressing are immigration, the
economic outlook of the country and gun control laws. President Obama’s 2012
State of the Union address lasted one hour and four minutes while addressing a
variety of topics. Student aid, clean energy initiatives, immigration and job
growth were key points in last year’s address.
According to a New York Times article President Obama plans
to discuss and emphasize public support for immigration reform. Administration officials said immigration
reform is at the top of Obama’s second-term agenda after failing to achieve it
in his first term. In President Obama’s 2012 address, immigration was key
issue. “I believe as strongly as ever that we should take on illegal
immigration,” Obama said. “We should be working on comprehensive immigration
reform right now.” The article also states Obama will fill
in details of his own plan during the address.
Another topic likely to be discussed during this year’s
State of the Union address is the economy. The economy was a key point last
year during the President’s State of the Union address as well. “No challenge
is more urgent,” Obama said. “No debate is more important. We can either settle
for a country where a shrinking number of people do really well, while a
growing number of Americans barely get by, or we can restore an economy where
everyone gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share and everyone plays by
the same set of rules.” A chart featured in the article in The Economist
compares the first terms economy to the second term of the last 11 two-term
presidents. The presidents featured are Clinton, Coolidge, Reagan, Truman,
Johnson, F. Roosevelt, T. Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Wilson, Nixon and Bush. The
chart shows the economic performance of the two-term presidents worsens by 4.2
points from the first term to the second. All 11 two-term presidents shown in
the chart featured the economy in their State of the Union addresses and unfortunately
were unable to produce a successful turn-around.
Gun control laws are another topic likely to be discussed in
great detail during the 2013 State of the Union address. Earlier this year Obama
discussed the nation’s gun problem following the Sandy Hook and Aurora movie
theater shootings and since then, New York governor Andrew Cuomo passed
aggressive gun legislation in the state. “While reducing gun violence is a
complicated challenge, protecting our children from harm shouldn’t be a
divisive one,” Obama said during a recent speech. “I asked (Vice President) Joe
(Biden) to lead an effort, along with members of my cabinet, to come up with
some concrete steps we can take right now to keep our children safe, to help
prevent mass shootings, to reduce the broader epidemic of gun violence in this
country. And we can’t put this off any longer.” With all of the recent gun
violence I believe gun control laws will make up a significant portion of the
address.
While another New York Times article argues
a second term allows the commander-in-chief to follow through on any unfinished
business, it also argues that a second term could be a curse. Obama’s second
term could compare to President Eisenhower’s. Both presidents have lost or will
lose a key member of their staff.
Eisenhower lost his chief of staff; Sherman Adams and Obama will lose
his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton. The change of staff has the potential
to cause speed bumps in the new term.
Also, with a Democratic Party majority in
the Senate and a Republican Party majority in the House, making significant
ground on any of his key points could be difficult for the President. “The President
and Congress must be willing to work together, which in a deeply partisan
Washington may be difficult to accomplish in the next four years,” Richard
Norton Smith, presidential scholar at George Mason University, said. “And like
other modern presidents, Mr. Obama must cope with a ‘snarky’ news media, which
glare at a president, magnifying anything that looks like success, or, especially,
failure.”
I will see how many of these predictions Obama
discusses when he presents his blueprint for the country on Feb. 12.