State of the Union Predictions 2013

With President Obama’s fourth State of the Union address – the first of his second term – rapidly approaching, there is a lot of speculation as to what he will discuss.

This year I predict the big topics President Obama will spend a considerable amount of time addressing are immigration, the economic outlook of the country and gun control laws. President Obama’s 2012 State of the Union address lasted one hour and four minutes while addressing a variety of topics. Student aid, clean energy initiatives, immigration and job growth were key points in last year’s address.

According to a New York Times article President Obama plans to discuss and emphasize public support for immigration reform.  Administration officials said immigration reform is at the top of Obama’s second-term agenda after failing to achieve it in his first term. In President Obama’s 2012 address, immigration was key issue. “I believe as strongly as ever that we should take on illegal immigration,” Obama said. “We should be working on comprehensive immigration reform right now.” The article also states Obama will fill in details of his own plan during the address.

Another topic likely to be discussed during this year’s State of the Union address is the economy. The economy was a key point last year during the President’s State of the Union address as well. “No challenge is more urgent,” Obama said. “No debate is more important. We can either settle for a country where a shrinking number of people do really well, while a growing number of Americans barely get by, or we can restore an economy where everyone gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share and everyone plays by the same set of rules.” A chart featured in the article in The Economist compares the first terms economy to the second term of the last 11 two-term presidents. The presidents featured are Clinton, Coolidge, Reagan, Truman, Johnson, F. Roosevelt, T. Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Wilson, Nixon and Bush. The chart shows the economic performance of the two-term presidents worsens by 4.2 points from the first term to the second. All 11 two-term presidents shown in the chart featured the economy in their State of the Union addresses and unfortunately were unable to produce a successful turn-around.

Gun control laws are another topic likely to be discussed in great detail during the 2013 State of the Union address. Earlier this year Obama discussed the nation’s gun problem following the Sandy Hook and Aurora movie theater shootings and since then, New York governor Andrew Cuomo passed aggressive gun legislation in the state. “While reducing gun violence is a complicated challenge, protecting our children from harm shouldn’t be a divisive one,” Obama said during a recent speech. “I asked (Vice President) Joe (Biden) to lead an effort, along with members of my cabinet, to come up with some concrete steps we can take right now to keep our children safe, to help prevent mass shootings, to reduce the broader epidemic of gun violence in this country. And we can’t put this off any longer.” With all of the recent gun violence I believe gun control laws will make up a significant portion of the address.

While another New York Times article argues a second term allows the commander-in-chief to follow through on any unfinished business, it also argues that a second term could be a curse. Obama’s second term could compare to President Eisenhower’s. Both presidents have lost or will lose a key member of their staff.  Eisenhower lost his chief of staff; Sherman Adams and Obama will lose his secretary of state, Hillary Clinton. The change of staff has the potential to cause speed bumps in the new term.

Also, with a Democratic Party majority in the Senate and a Republican Party majority in the House, making significant ground on any of his key points could be difficult for the President. “The President and Congress must be willing to work together, which in a deeply partisan Washington may be difficult to accomplish in the next four years,” Richard Norton Smith, presidential scholar at George Mason University, said. “And like other modern presidents, Mr. Obama must cope with a ‘snarky’ news media, which glare at a president, magnifying anything that looks like success, or, especially, failure.”

I will see how many of these predictions Obama discusses when he presents his blueprint for the country on Feb. 12.